Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -1000 BING +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +26 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -15.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -14.3 (+11.7) | 143.1 (+10.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -15.0 (+11.0) | 144.8 (+9.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -15.5 (+10.5) | 144.7 (+9.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -14.8 (+11.2) | 143.5 (+10.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#81) | -4.3 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#142) | 0.04 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#147) | -0.25 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#146) | 0.491 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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