Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | USU -2000 ETSU +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | USU -18.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -20.0 (-5.0) | 141.6 (+3.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -15.7 (-0.7) | 140.3 (+4.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -15.8 (-0.8) | 140.5 (+4.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -15.5 (-0.5) | 142.2 (+2.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#39) | -3.0 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#17) | 0.51 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#32) | 0.42 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#10) | 0.514 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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