Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -23.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -4500 DETM +1550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -24.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -19.9 (-2.9) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -21.7 (-4.7) | 141.8 (+7.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -24.5 (-7.5) | 141.8 (+7.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -23.0 (-6.0) | 144.0 (+5.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 1-31 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 1-19 |
| Home | 12-5 | 1-11 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-20 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#70) | -12.9 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#37) | -3.46 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#36) | -4.54 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#59) | 0.397 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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