Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -165 RUTG +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -4.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -3.3 (+6.7) | 131.6 (-1.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.0 (+7.0) | 130.0 (+0.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -2.5 (+7.5) | 131.8 (-1.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -2.9 (+7.1) | 132.4 (-2.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#41) | 7.1 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#46) | 1.27 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#28) | 1.78 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#45) | 0.554 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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