Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -4000 STET +1450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -20.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -17.2 (-9.2) | 149.9 (+8.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -18.8 (-10.8) | 148.9 (+9.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -20.3 (-12.3) | 148.8 (+9.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -21.2 (-13.2) | 148.4 (+9.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 16-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#28) | -2.7 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#75) | 0.01 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#65) | -0.62 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#96) | 0.519 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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