Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | PROV -260 BUT +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +10 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -2.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -4.3 (+5.7) | 146.0 (+14.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -4.1 (+5.9) | 143.0 (+17.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -4.4 (+5.6) | 144.6 (+15.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -3.7 (+6.3) | 144.9 (+15.1) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BUT |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BUT |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BUT 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BUT 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BUT 82 – 81 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-5 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#59) | 10.7 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#28) | 1.78 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#22) | 2.47 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#36) | 0.595 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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