Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.0 Over |
| Money | ALA -10000 EKU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +44 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -30.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -22.6 (+21.4) | 162.0 (+16.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -22.5 (+21.5) | 159.6 (+18.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -29.3 (+14.7) | 159.7 (+18.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -28.6 (+15.4) | 164.7 (+13.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#6) | -7.9 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#64) | -2.77 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#51) | -3.86 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#29) | 0.342 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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