Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.0 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -335 FAU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +1 | 191 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -10.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (+31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -5.8 (-6.8) | 154.5 (+36.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -7.4 (-8.4) | 157.6 (+33.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -6.5 (-7.5) | 156.7 (+34.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -6.6 (-7.6) | 157.5 (+33.5) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 82.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 26.5 (#1) | 16.4 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#8) | 2.41 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.96 (#7) | 3.27 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.664 (#7) | 0.657 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 44.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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