Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | FSU -435 WIN +328 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +6 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -8.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -5.9 (+0.1) | 147.1 (-19.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -5.8 (+0.2) | 146.2 (-18.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -5.8 (+0.2) | 144.9 (-16.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -5.9 (+0.1) | 146.7 (-18.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | FSU 82 – 64 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#95) | 1.1 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#165) | 0.14 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#163) | 0.36 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#102) | 0.515 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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