Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Tucker Center · December 23, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread FSU -8.5 Away covered
O/U 148.0 Under
Money FSU -435 / WIN +328
Model Predictions
Spread Total FSU win
Actual FSU +6 128 Won
Massey FSU -8.2 (-2.2)
Massey Totals 147.0 (-19.0)
Bradley-Terry 72%
Weighted B-T 75%
Baseline Plus ML FSU -5.9 (+0.1) 147.1 (-19.1) 74%
Baseline ML FSU -5.8 (+0.2) 146.2 (-18.2) 74%
Baseline Tuned ML FSU -5.8 (+0.2) 144.9 (-16.9) 72%
Efficiency Plus ML FSU -5.9 (+0.1) 146.7 (-18.7) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 18, 2024 FSU 8264 WIN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FSU WIN
Overall 17-16 17-15
Conference 10-10 8-8
Home 10-7 9-5
Away 4-7 6-9
Neutral 3-2 2-1
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 76.5 75.0
Avg Pts Against 76.3 73.5
Massey 4.9 (#95) 1.1 (#150)
Bradley-Terry 0.15 (#165) 0.14 (#167)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.36 (#163) 0.36 (#164)
RPI 0.548 (#102) 0.515 (#152)
Shooting & Four Factors FSU WIN
FG% 44.1% 43.6%
3PT% 35.4% 34.3%
REB / G 36.7 34.8
OREB / G 11.2 11.6
AST / TO 1.11 0.90
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.5% 50.2%
TOV% 17.2% 17.6%
ORB% 30.4% 33.2%
FT Rate 22.0% 34.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.2% 48.8%
Opp TOV% 20.9% 17.6%
DRB% 67.5% 64.6%
Opp FT Rate 29.5% 23.0%

Game Analysis

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