Portland
Pilots
78
–
100
FINAL
Neutral
Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
Massachusetts
Minutemen
Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
| Money | PORT +260 MASS -335 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +22 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | MASS -11.3 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -8.5 (-13.5) | 151.5 (+26.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -8.6 (-13.4) | 150.9 (+27.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -8.2 (-13.8) | 150.7 (+27.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -8.3 (-13.7) | 152.2 (+25.8) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#261) | 6.2 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#211) | 0.34 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#213) | 0.61 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#180) | 0.549 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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