Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Lawler Arena · December 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MRMK -5.5 Home covered
O/U 126.5 Under
Money MRMK -250 / BUCK +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total MRMK win
Actual MRMK +16 120 Won
Massey MRMK -10.1 (+5.9) — —
Massey Totals — 126.2 (-6.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 82% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 87% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MRMK -7.1 (+8.9) 129.3 (-9.3) 76% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MRMK -7.2 (+8.8) 130.5 (-10.5) 74% ✓
Baseline ML MRMK -7.6 (+8.4) 129.5 (-9.5) 75% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MRMK -7.0 (+9.0) 128.9 (-8.9) 76% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 18, 2022 BUCK 61 – 55 MRMK

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MRMK BUCK
Overall 21-12 14-19
Conference 13-3 10-8
Home 13-2 6-8
Away 7-9 8-11
Neutral 1-1 0-0
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.8 65.2
Avg Pts Against 64.6 67.2
Massey -0.0 (#173) -5.6 (#273)
Bradley-Terry -0.15 (#197) -0.78 (#252)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.09 (#173) -0.78 (#240)
RPI 0.505 (#165) 0.475 (#208)
Shooting & Four Factors MRMK BUCK
FG% 41.7% 41.9%
3PT% 26.7% 34.4%
REB / G 31.5 28.2
OREB / G 8.1 6.6
AST / TO 0.68 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.1% 49.9%
TOV% 21.2% 20.5%
ORB% 23.9% 21.5%
FT Rate 26.7% 23.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.0% 54.9%
Opp TOV% 21.2% 16.9%
DRB% 62.7% 69.5%
Opp FT Rate 27.8% 20.4%

Game Analysis

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