Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA -250 ARMY +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +10 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -8.8 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -6.2 (-16.2) | 139.7 (-23.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -5.3 (-15.3) | 138.1 (-22.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -6.6 (-16.6) | 138.3 (-22.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -6.7 (-16.7) | 138.3 (-22.3) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | ARMY 78 – 75 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 6-11 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 59.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#284) | -10.7 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#281) | -2.80 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#282) | -3.34 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#299) | 0.373 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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