They were all in love with dying, they we're doing it in Texas. "Pepper" - Butthole Surfers
Christl Arena · December 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UTSA -2.5 Home covered
O/U 156.5 Under
Money ARMY +125 / UTSA -145
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARMY win
Actual ARMY +3 153 Won
Massey ARMY -0.5 (+2.5)
Massey Totals 168.1 (-15.1)
Bradley-Terry 47%
Weighted B-T 50%
Baseline Plus ML ARMY -1.5 (+1.5) 159.8 (-6.8) 58%
Efficiency Plus ML ARMY -0.6 (+2.4) 161.8 (-8.8) 49%
Baseline Tuned ML ARMY -1.1 (+1.9) 157.9 (-4.9) 54%
Baseline ML ARMY -1.2 (+1.8) 158.9 (-5.9) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2023 ARMY 6353 UTSA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARMY UTSA
Overall 17-16 12-19
Conference 10-8 6-12
Home 12-4 7-7
Away 4-11 4-11
Neutral 1-1 1-1
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.7 74.4
Avg Pts Against 76.5 77.5
Massey -6.8 (#282) -3.0 (#217)
Bradley-Terry -0.92 (#255) -0.02 (#170)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.45 (#268) -0.57 (#210)
RPI 0.457 (#256) 0.514 (#149)
Shooting & Four Factors ARMY UTSA
FG% 43.0% 41.0%
3PT% 31.9% 34.0%
REB / G 39.0 34.4
OREB / G 11.4 11.3
AST / TO 1.53 0.80
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.4% 48.3%
TOV% 14.0% 18.7%
ORB% 28.6% 30.4%
FT Rate 17.7% 24.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.8% 52.6%
Opp TOV% 12.6% 19.6%
DRB% 71.9% 63.6%
Opp FT Rate 17.4% 29.9%

Game Analysis

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