Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | ARMY +125 UTSA -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -0.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -1.5 (+1.5) | 159.8 (-6.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -0.6 (+2.4) | 161.8 (-8.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -1.1 (+1.9) | 157.9 (-4.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -1.2 (+1.8) | 158.9 (-5.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | ARMY 63 – 53 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#282) | -3.0 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#255) | -0.02 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#268) | -0.57 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#256) | 0.514 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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