Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USA -900 AAMU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | USA -16.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -14.4 (+1.6) | 149.0 (+1.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -13.2 (+2.8) | 150.2 (-0.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -13.2 (+2.8) | 148.9 (+1.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -13.7 (+2.3) | 150.0 (-0.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2022 | USA 78 – 71 AAMU |
| Dec 19, 2020 | AAMU 93 – 90 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#227) | -15.4 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#191) | -2.16 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#189) | -3.11 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#237) | 0.396 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 36.7% |
Game Analysis
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