Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU +450 USA -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -9.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -8.3 (+1.3) | 144.7 (+4.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -6.3 (-0.7) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -6.2 (-0.8) | 145.3 (+3.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -6.6 (-0.4) | 146.6 (+2.4) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | USA 83 – 67 AAMU |
| Dec 19, 2020 | AAMU 93 – 90 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#331) | 4.4 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#321) | -0.27 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#329) | 0.29 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.342 (#357) | 0.524 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 18.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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