Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +3 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | AAMU -14.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -12.2 (-9.2) | 149.7 (+33.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -11.3 (-8.3) | 153.0 (+30.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -7.4 (-4.4) | 152.2 (+30.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | USA 83 – 67 AAMU |
| Dec 13, 2022 | USA 78 – 71 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-2 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#87) | -4.3 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#19) | 0.05 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#21) | -0.80 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#40) | 0.460 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.4% | 52.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 42.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 25.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 4.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 60.8% |
| TOV% | 24.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 16.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 61.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 12.8% |
Game Analysis
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