Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -4500 AMCC +1550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -19.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -18.7 (-2.7) | 145.7 (-19.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -18.1 (-2.1) | 148.3 (-22.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -20.3 (-4.3) | 148.1 (-22.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -21.5 (-5.5) | 148.0 (-22.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#56) | -6.2 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#57) | -1.42 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#51) | -2.17 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#73) | 0.452 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 40.2% |
Game Analysis
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