Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -27.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +24 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -21.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+30.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -22.0 (+2.0) | 149.4 (+26.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -19.4 (+4.6) | 146.3 (+29.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -20.1 (+3.9) | 148.1 (+27.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -22.0 (+2.0) | 148.2 (+27.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 6-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-13 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#32) | -5.0 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#38) | 0.05 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#32) | -0.56 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#57) | 0.531 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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