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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–17 on winners spread MAE 8.4 65 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Marshall @ Kentucky	+16.0	153.3	88%	82–118	✓
Alabama @ Ohio State	-10.3	152.9	17%	81–92	✗
Bowling Green @ Western Kentucky	+4.7	141.3	72%	65–72	✓
Alabama A&M @ East Tennessee State	+4.0	139.6	66%	71–82	✓
Lehigh @ Providence	+10.8	140.6	83%	64–78	✓
George Washington @ Ohio	-3.6	141.8	32%	99–94	✓
Youngstown State @ Dayton	+13.0	137.4	87%	69–77	✓
New Hampshire @ Fairfield	-1.3	144.5	38%	83–80	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Hawai'i	+9.0	146.3	80%	57–76	✓
Houston Christian @ Oklahoma State	+15.0	153.2	88%	65–92	✓
North Florida @ LSU	+14.8	148.1	87%	63–75	✓
Alcorn State @ Clemson	+16.3	149.4	88%	69–90	✓
Vanderbilt @ Arizona State	+2.8	135.2	65%	67–82	✓
VCU @ Boise State	-1.8	135.5	43%	61–65	✗
Western Illinois @ Illinois	+19.7	137.7	90%	52–84	✓
Stanford @ Northern Iowa	-1.3	153.2	44%	51–73	✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Cal State Northridge	+14.3	138.8	87%	48–84	✓
Le Moyne @ Pacific	+3.6	141.5	65%	71–73	✓
Santa Clara @ Oregon	+1.6	139.7	57%	88–82	✗
NC State @ BYU	+9.6	144.5	82%	86–95	✓
San Diego @ Arkansas State	-4.2	149.1	33%	71–57	✓
Brown @ Kansas City	-1.3	140.0	45%	93–83	✓
Tennessee State @ SE Louisiana	-4.9	139.2	31%	91–77	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Missouri	+8.7	135.6	78%	70–78	✓
Jackson State @ Georgetown	+12.3	147.6	85%	81–88	✓
NJIT @ Wagner	+10.7	134.9	85%	51–64	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Liberty	+24.1	148.3	91%	62–99	✓
Merrimack @ Alabama State	-6.2	143.9	25%	60–66	✗
New Orleans @ North Dakota	+3.2	148.9	65%	69–71	✓
Maine @ Columbia	+3.8	138.7	64%	56–75	✓
Mercer @ Western Michigan	-3.2	136.5	34%	66–72	✗
Ohio @ Middle Tennessee	-3.0	131.0	38%	80–68	✓
Western Kentucky @ Canisius	-1.7	141.1	43%	77–85	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Evansville	+13.6	139.3	86%	74–93	✓
Northeastern @ Princeton	+19.6	138.0	91%	66–80	✓
Detroit Mercy @ SIU Edwardsville	+10.7	132.9	85%	67–81	✓
East Carolina @ George Mason	+12.6	140.3	86%	59–81	✓
UMBC @ William & Mary	+5.8	159.0	71%	81–96	✓
Monmouth @ Lafayette	-5.0	139.1	30%	63–53	✓
South Carolina State @ Missouri State	+21.4	145.2	90%	74–92	✓
Miami (OH) @ St. Bonaventure	+4.5	137.3	62%	60–90	✓
Army @ Binghamton	+13.5	133.8	85%	68–75	✓
Southern Miss @ Milwaukee	+4.3	141.4	63%	90–84	✗
UT Martin @ Chicago State	+0.7	149.8	46%	94–71	✗
Tulsa @ Little Rock	+2.0	148.4	50%	82–84	✓
Texas State @ UT Arlington	+5.3	135.7	72%	73–66	✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Green Bay	+0.6	128.1	48%	51–64	✓
Lamar @ Longwood	+6.2	148.3	75%	72–83	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Samford	+15.9	155.6	88%	83–101	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Central Arkansas	+1.5	136.8	48%	74–71	✗
Alabama @ Oregon	-9.1	159.9	21%	99–91	✓
Southern @ Valparaiso	+0.8	145.6	53%	59–71	✓
Howard @ Mount St. Mary's	+2.7	143.7	60%	87–83	✗
Incarnate Word @ UTSA	+0.8	153.6	45%	80–90	✓
Jacksonville @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-1.8	151.1	42%	91–90	✓
Niagara @ Saint Francis	+3.1	140.7	57%	69–61	✗
Bucknell @ Marist	+10.4	132.7	85%	49–73	✓
Long Island University @ Northern Kentucky	+8.6	145.8	80%	64–72	✓
Delaware @ UNC Greensboro	-3.7	137.8	33%	77–88	✗
UNC Wilmington @ Florida Gulf Coast	+2.4	142.1	58%	71–55	✗
Belmont @ Pennsylvania	+9.3	155.7	81%	84–79	✗
Wofford @ UNC Asheville	-6.5	153.8	23%	82–85	✗
Delaware State @ Bethune-Cookman	-1.2	141.7	45%	72–64	✓
Georgia State @ Charlotte	+8.5	132.3	78%	57–65	✓
Furman @ UAB	+5.6	148.7	73%	86–92	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.