Betting Lines
| Spread | SELA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | SELA -135 TNST +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SELA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +14 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -5.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -3.9 (-10.1) | 137.7 (+30.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -4.9 (-9.1) | 139.2 (+28.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -4.8 (-9.2) | 140.8 (+27.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -4.3 (-9.7) | 138.9 (+29.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SELA | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#258) | 0.7 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.91 (#346) | 0.90 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.60 (#326) | 2.10 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#260) | 0.560 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SELA | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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