Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -154 BEL +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | PENN -12.1 (-17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -7.9 (-12.9) | 151.7 (+11.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -9.3 (-14.3) | 155.7 (+7.3) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -9.3 (-14.3) | 154.1 (+8.9) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -9.1 (-14.1) | 152.4 (+10.6) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#169) | -5.5 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#164) | -0.25 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#164) | -0.58 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#218) | 0.489 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 15.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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