North Dakota
Fighting Hawks
71
–
69
OT
FINAL
Neutral
Central Arkansas Classic
New Orleans
Privateers
Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UND -150 UNO +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UND -2.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -2.8 (-0.8) | 149.8 (-9.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -3.2 (-1.2) | 148.9 (-8.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UND -3.8 (-1.8) | 150.3 (-10.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -3.2 (-1.2) | 150.8 (-10.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#256) | -6.4 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#74) | -1.76 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#106) | -2.50 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#49) | 0.281 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 23.6% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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