Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -150 UIW +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +10 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -2.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -1.5 (+8.5) | 159.0 (+11.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -0.8 (+9.2) | 153.6 (+16.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -1.7 (+8.3) | 154.0 (+16.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -0.8 (+9.2) | 156.6 (+13.4) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2022 | UTSA 68 – 62 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 7-9 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#314) | -3.5 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#325) | 0.80 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.36 (#321) | 0.97 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.322 (#346) | 0.530 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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