Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | BOIS -178 VCU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -2.9 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -1.3 (+5.3) | 134.6 (-8.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -1.8 (+5.8) | 135.5 (-9.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -2.0 (+6.0) | 135.2 (-9.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -1.4 (+5.4) | 133.4 (-7.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 24-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#136) | 4.5 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#144) | 0.22 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#110) | 0.79 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#47) | 0.564 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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