Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | CAN +260 WKU -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -3.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -3.0 (+11.0) | 143.7 (+18.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -1.7 (+9.7) | 141.1 (+20.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -1.1 (+9.1) | 141.9 (+20.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -1.3 (+9.3) | 145.8 (+16.2) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#158) | 3.5 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#73) | 1.40 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#88) | 2.29 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#77) | 0.567 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 21.6% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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