Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +300 MRMK -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +6 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | MRMK -9.6 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -6.6 (+12.6) | 145.7 (-19.7) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -6.2 (+12.2) | 143.9 (-17.9) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -7.1 (+13.1) | 145.6 (-19.6) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -6.6 (+12.6) | 146.3 (-20.3) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-3 |
| Home | 7-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#317) | 1.0 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#209) | 0.85 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#207) | 1.14 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#185) | 0.520 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 15.8 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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