Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UNI +196 STAN -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +22 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -0.3 (+22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (-42.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -1.6 (+23.6) | 153.0 (-29.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -1.3 (+23.3) | 153.2 (-29.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -1.4 (+23.4) | 153.1 (-29.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -1.0 (+23.0) | 154.4 (-30.4) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#188) | -0.8 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#340) | -1.30 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.04 (#338) | -1.99 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#301) | 0.419 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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