Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | WKU -175 BGSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -8.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -5.5 (+1.5) | 140.5 (-3.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -4.7 (+2.3) | 141.3 (-4.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -4.3 (+2.7) | 142.6 (-5.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -3.4 (+3.6) | 145.1 (-8.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#114) | -5.3 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#72) | -1.84 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#66) | -3.48 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#90) | 0.339 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 21.6% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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