Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -138 SOU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -0.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -0.6 (+11.4) | 146.7 (-16.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -0.8 (+11.2) | 145.6 (-15.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -1.5 (+10.5) | 147.2 (-17.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -1.6 (+10.4) | 145.2 (-15.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-11 | 11-2 |
| Away | 1-13 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#338) | -4.6 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#305) | -0.05 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.84 (#334) | -0.15 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#310) | 0.510 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 26.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.1% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 58.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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