Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | LSU -4000 UNF +1450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -19.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -14.5 (-2.5) | 147.4 (-9.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -14.8 (-2.8) | 148.1 (-10.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -17.0 (-5.0) | 148.6 (-10.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -16.7 (-4.7) | 149.5 (-11.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#90) | -6.7 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#215) | -1.21 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#216) | -2.51 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#190) | 0.386 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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