Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -225 FUR +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +6 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -6.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -5.1 (+0.9) | 152.1 (+25.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -5.6 (+0.4) | 148.7 (+29.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -5.7 (+0.3) | 149.2 (+28.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -6.3 (-0.3) | 152.1 (+25.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | 0.9 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#82) | -0.27 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#73) | -0.44 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#60) | 0.513 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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