Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -800 AAMU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -6.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -3.7 (+7.3) | 139.4 (+13.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -4.0 (+7.0) | 139.6 (+13.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -3.8 (+7.2) | 142.4 (+10.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -3.4 (+7.6) | 142.0 (+11.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#234) | -9.5 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#236) | -1.05 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#228) | -1.44 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#261) | 0.366 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 40.9% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 60.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 37.6% |
Game Analysis
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