Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | OHIO -200 GW +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +5 | 193 | Lost |
| Massey | GW -5.0 (-0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+56.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -1.0 (-4.0) | 147.9 (+45.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -3.6 (-1.4) | 141.8 (+51.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -3.5 (-1.5) | 144.3 (+48.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -2.5 (-2.5) | 148.7 (+44.3) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#129) | 7.2 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#198) | 1.88 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#192) | 3.33 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#257) | 0.621 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 39.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 11.2% |
Game Analysis
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