Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | WMU +105 MER -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MER -5.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -4.0 (+10.0) | 131.6 (+6.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -3.2 (+9.2) | 136.5 (+1.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -3.6 (+9.6) | 134.7 (+3.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -4.4 (+10.4) | 133.2 (+4.8) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#259) | 0.9 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#315) | 1.51 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#313) | 1.64 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#286) | 0.573 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 38.6% |
Game Analysis
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