Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -225 WOF +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | WOF -9.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WOF -5.0 (+8.0) | 153.0 (+14.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WOF -6.5 (+9.5) | 153.8 (+13.2) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WOF -6.5 (+9.5) | 154.5 (+12.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WOF -7.1 (+10.1) | 154.6 (+12.4) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#344) | -3.1 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#339) | -0.13 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.31 (#346) | -0.38 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.341 (#333) | 0.463 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 60.7% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 45.9% |
Game Analysis
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