Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -1600 LIU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -13.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -11.6 (-3.6) | 146.2 (-10.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -8.6 (-0.6) | 145.8 (-9.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -8.9 (-0.9) | 145.3 (-9.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -10.0 (-2.0) | 149.3 (-13.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 7-22 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#218) | -8.9 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#264) | -2.19 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#238) | -4.15 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#280) | 0.336 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 37.2% |
Game Analysis
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