Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -20.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | MIZ -2800 L-MD +1250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -10.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -11.9 (-3.9) | 137.2 (+10.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -8.7 (-0.7) | 135.6 (+12.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -9.8 (-1.8) | 134.8 (+13.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -9.8 (-1.8) | 137.8 (+10.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-11 | 2-11 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L19 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#194) | -5.0 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#197) | -1.86 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#194) | -2.95 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#165) | 0.352 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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