Betting Lines
| Spread | BRWN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | KC +2000 BRWN -6000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRWN +10 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | BRWN -4.1 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRWN -2.8 (-7.2) | 137.1 (+38.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRWN -1.3 (-8.7) | 140.0 (+36.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRWN -1.0 (-9.0) | 142.8 (+33.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRWN -0.5 (-9.5) | 139.6 (+36.4) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#301) | -3.1 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#267) | -3.83 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#282) | -5.52 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#102) | 0.348 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 43.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 66.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.3% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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