Betting Lines
| Spread | BCU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | BCU +100 DSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DSU +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | DSU -1.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DSU -0.7 (-7.3) | 141.6 (-5.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DSU -1.2 (-6.8) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DSU -1.1 (-6.9) | 143.7 (-7.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DSU -0.9 (-7.1) | 143.5 (-7.5) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#339) | -9.6 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#320) | -1.89 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.40 (#322) | -3.17 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.356 (#325) | 0.398 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.2% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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