Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Over |
| Money | OSU +250 ALA -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +11 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -18.9 (+29.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.3 (+22.3) | 153.6 (+19.4) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -10.3 (+21.3) | 152.9 (+20.1) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -12.0 (+23.0) | 151.4 (+21.6) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -11.8 (+22.8) | 147.4 (+25.6) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 90.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#100) | 23.8 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#151) | 2.55 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#145) | 3.55 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#118) | 0.746 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 56.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 48.9% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 43.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 65.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 41.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 40.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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