Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -700 LEM +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -5.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -2.3 (-0.3) | 142.9 (+1.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -3.6 (-1.6) | 141.5 (+2.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -3.6 (-1.6) | 142.1 (+1.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -2.7 (-0.7) | 142.3 (+1.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 0-16 | 9-7 |
| Home | 5-12 | 10-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L23 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#323) | -7.2 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#260) | -0.26 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#262) | -0.18 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#160) | 0.470 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 18.5% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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