Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -20000 WIU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +32 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -24.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -21.7 (+10.3) | 144.2 (-8.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -19.7 (+12.3) | 137.7 (-1.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -23.0 (+9.0) | 137.6 (-1.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -25.1 (+6.9) | 140.1 (-4.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#68) | -10.3 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#128) | -1.45 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#105) | -2.45 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#116) | 0.339 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 47.2 | 44.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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