Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -1400 YSU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -19.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -12.1 (-4.1) | 135.9 (+10.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -13.0 (-5.0) | 137.4 (+8.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -13.2 (-5.2) | 137.7 (+8.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -13.0 (-5.0) | 139.1 (+6.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#88) | -6.5 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#79) | -0.16 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#104) | -0.10 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.660 (#26) | 0.419 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 22.9% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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