In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–13 on winners spread MAE 9.0 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
George Washington @ UIC +1.9 138.1 56% 79–89 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Cleveland State +12.2 146.1 87% 59–86 ✓
UTEP @ Loyola Marymount +3.4 140.5 59% 47–67 ✓
Holy Cross @ St. John's +11.7 148.4 86% 45–91 ✓
Queens University @ Richmond +16.2 142.3 87% 61–90 ✓
Ohio State @ Santa Clara -2.0 140.6 46% 86–56 ✓
Texas Southern @ Drake +15.6 136.0 87% 71–77 ✓
California @ San Diego State +12.5 153.3 85% 67–76 ✓
South Alabama @ Maryland +9.7 133.2 81% 55–68 ✓
Norfolk State @ Wichita State +16.8 140.6 89% 67–80 ✓
Bowling Green @ Lipscomb +7.4 144.6 79% 82–61 ✗
Arkansas State @ UT Rio Grande Valley -4.1 149.2 31% 75–58 ✓
Dartmouth @ Saint Louis +15.6 143.5 88% 65–66 ✓
Vermont @ Bradley +9.2 136.6 79% 70–79 ✓
North Dakota State @ Grand Canyon +15.2 148.0 87% 71–86 ✓
Northern Illinois @ DePaul -2.5 146.8 35% 89–79 ✓
San Diego @ Hawai'i +0.4 136.0 56% 66–77 ✓
Penn State @ VCU -1.8 132.3 42% 74–86 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Kansas City -4.3 129.7 35% 63–59 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Western Kentucky +6.6 148.7 77% 77–67 ✗
Lafayette @ Belmont +2.8 142.9 63% 69–79 ✓
New Mexico State @ Louisville +6.5 144.4 74% 84–90 ✓
Coppin State @ La Salle +15.4 134.0 88% 62–81 ✓
Austin Peay @ App State +12.8 135.5 87% 58–78 ✓
Lamar @ Delaware State -5.1 144.9 29% 84–81 ✓
North Dakota @ Eastern Michigan -2.0 140.8 43% 72–70 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Saint Joseph's +6.9 145.2 74% 55–64 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Virginia Tech +0.2 149.4 54% 84–50 ✗
Ohio @ Brown -5.7 151.7 27% 82–77 ✓
Air Force @ South Dakota +2.1 139.0 56% 58–57 ✗
Iona @ Colorado +14.7 148.9 86% 68–85 ✓
Lipscomb @ Wofford -7.6 157.5 20% 85–78 ✓
Denver @ East Texas A&M +2.3 148.7 60% 71–61 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Chattanooga +13.0 144.3 88% 56–72 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Coastal Carolina +2.1 144.3 55% 70–58 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Robert Morris +5.1 149.3 69% 86–97 ✓
Drexel @ Old Dominion +2.5 133.1 56% 61–68 ✓
Stonehill @ Quinnipiac +13.1 151.5 88% 69–80 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Nebraska +18.8 138.7 90% 72–85 ✓
Monmouth @ Pennsylvania +2.7 146.3 56% 61–76 ✓
Wyoming @ Texas +10.5 141.6 80% 63–86 ✓
UL Monroe @ SMU +12.3 132.9 86% 57–70 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Longwood +13.9 145.1 87% 48–69 ✓
New Orleans @ Central Arkansas -0.2 142.3 43% 79–74 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Incarnate Word -2.7 136.9 38% 67–65 ✓
Canisius @ Bowling Green -5.6 140.5 26% 73–77 ✗
Morgan State @ Towson +11.8 139.6 86% 58–67 ✓
Yale @ Rhode Island +1.6 146.7 54% 72–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Western Carolina +11.1 146.4 84% 63–81 ✓
Butler @ Boise State -6.1 143.0 26% 70–56 ✓
Long Beach State @ Montana State +3.8 137.6 63% 75–69 ✗
Stetson @ UCF +11.4 140.3 84% 85–82 ✗
George Washington @ Delaware -2.0 143.2 39% 81–71 ✓
Harvard @ Indiana -7.1 140.3 23% 76–89 ✗
UAlbany @ Siena -4.3 139.5 31% 86–51 ✓
Bellarmine @ West Virginia +6.8 132.2 73% 58–62 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Pacific +11.4 132.9 86% 65–68 ✓
Charleston @ Kent State +13.1 147.7 86% 84–78 ✗
UC San Diego @ Seattle U +8.7 139.0 79% 67–79 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Florida International +3.7 152.4 62% 84–91 ✓
Texas A&M @ Iowa State +4.3 143.3 64% 73–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.