Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -800 MORG +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -17.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -12.8 (-3.8) | 134.1 (-9.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -12.3 (-3.3) | 139.6 (-14.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -11.8 (-2.8) | 139.6 (-14.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -13.1 (-4.1) | 135.5 (-10.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2024 | TOW 64 – 60 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#245) | -14.4 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#313) | -3.48 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#320) | -4.89 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#286) | 0.394 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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