And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
SECU Arena · November 26, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TOW -12.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Under
Money TOW -800 / MORG +700
Model Predictions
Spread Total TOW win
Actual TOW +9 125 Won
Massey TOW -17.2 (-8.2)
Massey Totals 146.0 (-21.0)
Bradley-Terry 95%
Weighted B-T 97%
Baseline Plus ML TOW -12.8 (-3.8) 134.1 (-9.1) 86%
Baseline ML TOW -12.3 (-3.3) 139.6 (-14.6) 85%
Baseline Tuned ML TOW -11.8 (-2.8) 139.6 (-14.6) 86%
Efficiency Plus ML TOW -13.1 (-4.1) 135.5 (-10.5) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 24, 2024 TOW 6460 MORG

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TOW MORG
Overall 20-14 11-20
Conference 11-7 7-7
Home 12-2 8-5
Away 6-6 3-12
Neutral 2-6 0-3
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.6 69.8
Avg Pts Against 64.2 80.0
Massey -3.9 (#245) -14.4 (#352)
Bradley-Terry -1.98 (#313) -3.48 (#354)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.22 (#320) -4.89 (#351)
RPI 0.413 (#286) 0.394 (#303)
Shooting & Four Factors TOW MORG
FG% 39.2% 41.2%
3PT% 29.4% 30.8%
REB / G 36.8 31.2
OREB / G 14.0 10.6
AST / TO 0.57 0.50
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 43.2% 45.7%
TOV% 22.1% 21.5%
ORB% 39.8% 27.5%
FT Rate 23.5% 14.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 60.5%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 17.0%
DRB% 72.5% 61.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.9% 28.4%

Game Analysis

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