Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MORG +420 TOW -580 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +4 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -1.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -0.5 (-3.5) | 139.2 (-15.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -0.0 (-4.0) | 140.1 (-16.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -0.5 (-3.5) | 139.0 (-15.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -3.8 (-0.2) | 137.7 (-13.7) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2023 | TOW 67 – 58 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 2-13 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#309) | -0.0 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#336) | 0.46 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.98 (#341) | 0.04 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.339 (#345) | 0.586 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.6% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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