Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -2000 ULM +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +13 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -17.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -11.0 (+2.0) | 132.2 (-5.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -12.3 (+0.7) | 132.9 (-5.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -13.3 (-0.3) | 133.9 (-6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -14.5 (-1.5) | 132.8 (-5.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2021 | SMU 74 – 67 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#106) | -6.0 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#170) | 0.81 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#153) | 1.39 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#139) | 0.582 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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