Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -200 UVM +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -10.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -6.8 (+2.2) | 138.0 (+11.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -9.2 (-0.2) | 136.6 (+12.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -9.0 (+0.0) | 136.6 (+12.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -6.3 (+2.7) | 134.6 (+14.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-1 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 63.8 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#50) | 4.5 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#4) | 2.14 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.43 (#9) | 3.75 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.840 (#1) | 0.651 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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