Betting Lines
| Spread | LAM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DSU +163 LAM -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAM +3 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | LAM -7.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAM -5.3 (+2.3) | 148.7 (+16.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAM -5.1 (+2.1) | 144.9 (+20.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAM -4.8 (+1.8) | 146.7 (+18.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAM -5.6 (+2.6) | 149.6 (+15.4) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DSU | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#326) | -1.6 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#302) | -0.85 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.96 (#314) | -1.08 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#287) | 0.468 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DSU | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.6% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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