Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NEB -2500 CSUF +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +13 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -22.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -15.9 (-2.9) | 142.1 (+14.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -18.8 (-5.8) | 138.7 (+18.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -22.3 (-9.3) | 138.9 (+18.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -22.4 (-9.4) | 139.5 (+17.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 18-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#46) | -6.3 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#35) | 0.09 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#38) | 0.07 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#68) | 0.503 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 24.7% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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